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Australia tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
6 Feb 2025 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Nathan Lyon 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Lyon | 11 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 35.48 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnebowled · Nathan Lyon3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Lyon | 36 | 83 | 3 | 0 | 43.37 |
 Dinesh Chandimalstumped · Alex Carey · Matthew Kuhnemann6 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Alex Carey · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 74 | 163 | 6 | 1 | 45.40 |
 |
| caught · Alex Carey · b Nathan Lyon |
| 1 |
| 26 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 3.85 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Steve Smith · Travis Head 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Travis Head | 13 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 61.90 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Beau Webster · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beau Webster · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Kusal Mendisnot out 10 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 85* | 139 | 10 | 1 | 61.15 |
|---|
| Ramesh Mendiscaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 28 | 94 | 2 | 0 | 29.79 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyacaught · Steve Smith · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nishan Peirisbowled · Matthew Kuhnemann 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaracaught · Beau Webster · Matthew Kuhnemann 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beau Webster · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 7.69 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 3 | 37 | 3 | 2.31 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Kuhnemann9 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 33.4 | 9 | 63 | 3 | 1.87 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 34.0 | 5 | 96 | 3 | 2.82 | 0 | 0 |
 Beau Webster0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 2 |
| Cooper Connolly1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 3.88 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Pathum Nissanka, 7.4) · 2-93 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 32.3) · 3-101 (Angelo Mathews, 38.3) · 4-126 (Kamindu Mendis, 46.0) · 5-127 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 46.2) · 6-150 (Dinesh Chandimal, 60.2) · 7-215 (Ramesh Mendis, 83.4) · 8-215 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 83.5) · 9-224 (Nishan Peiris, 86.1) · 10-257 (Lahiru Kumara, 97.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 18/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 19/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 28/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 32/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 34/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 45/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 46/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 47/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 48/1 |
| 17 | 11 | 59/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 61/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 65/1 |
| 20 | 1 | 66/1 |
| 21 | 0 | 66/1 |
| 22 | 1 | 67/1 |
| 23 | 2 | 69/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 71/1 |
| 25 | 6 | 77/1 |
| 26 | 2 | 79/1 |
| 27 | 5 | 84/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 87/1 |
| 29 | 0 | 87/1 |
| 30 | 0 | 87/1 |
| 31 | 5 | 92/1 |
| 32 | 1 | 93/1 |
| 33 | 1 | 94/2 |
| 34 | 0 | 94/2 |
| 35 | 1 | 95/2 |
| 36 | 0 | 95/2 |
| 37 | 0 | 95/2 |
| 38 | 1 | 96/2 |
| 39 | 5 | 101/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 105/3 |
| 41 | 2 | 107/3 |
| 42 | 1 | 108/3 |
| 43 | 0 | 108/3 |
| 44 | 2 | 110/3 |
| 45 | 7 | 117/3 |
| 46 | 9 | 126/4 |
| 47 | 1 | 127/5 |
| 48 | 2 | 129/5 |
| 49 | 0 | 129/5 |
| 50 | 4 | 133/5 |
| 51 | 0 | 133/5 |
| 52 | 3 | 136/5 |
| 53 | 0 | 136/5 |
| 54 | 2 | 138/5 |
| 55 | 1 | 139/5 |
| 56 | 3 | 142/5 |
| 57 | 0 | 142/5 |
| 58 | 2 | 144/5 |
| 59 | 0 | 144/5 |
| 60 | 5 | 149/5 |
| 61 | 3 | 152/6 |
| 62 | 12 | 164/6 |
| 63 | 0 | 164/6 |
| 64 | 4 | 168/6 |
| 65 | 1 | 169/6 |
| 66 | 9 | 178/6 |
| 67 | 2 | 180/6 |
| 68 | 1 | 181/6 |
| 69 | 3 | 184/6 |
| 70 | 6 | 190/6 |
| 71 | 3 | 193/6 |
| 72 | 4 | 197/6 |
| 73 | 4 | 201/6 |
| 74 | 0 | 201/6 |
| 75 | 2 | 203/6 |
| 76 | 0 | 203/6 |
| 77 | 3 | 206/6 |
| 78 | 1 | 207/6 |
| 79 | 2 | 209/6 |
| 80 | 1 | 210/6 |
| 81 | 0 | 210/6 |
| 82 | 3 | 213/6 |
| 83 | 1 | 214/6 |
| 84 | 1 | 215/8 |
| 85 | 5 | 220/8 |
| 86 | 4 | 224/8 |
| 87 | 0 | 224/9 |
| 88 | 4 | 228/9 |
| 89 | 0 | 228/9 |
| 90 | 1 | 229/9 |
| 91 | 5 | 234/9 |
| 92 | 5 | 239/9 |
| 93 | 3 | 242/9 |
| 94 | 3 | 245/9 |
| 95 | 9 | 254/9 |
| 96 | 1 | 255/9 |
| 97 | 1 | 256/9 |
| 98 | 1 | 257/10 |
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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