ScotlandversusNetherlands

15 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Scotland won by 39 runs

Scotland20.0 overs160/8 Netherlands18.1 overs121/10 Titwood, Glasgow ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Scotland more likely to win

60%Scotland40%Netherlands

Why

Scotland are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 6 and Netherlands won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than Netherlands (1,533 vs 1,528 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 57%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 75%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: SM Sharif to M Levitt, SA Edwards out. Scotland up from 47% to 64%.
2nd inns 8.1: MA Leask to M Levitt, M Levitt out. Scotland up from 54% to 74%.
2nd inns 9.6: MRJ Watt to NRJ Croes, NRJ Croes out. Scotland up from 63% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland160/8 Netherlands121/10

Innings 1

Scotland

160/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
George Munseycaught · Saqib Zulfiqar · Zach Lion-Cachet 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Saqib Zulfiqar · b Zach Lion-Cachet	30	17	2	3	176.47
Mark Wattstumped · Scott Edwards · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Scott Edwards · b Aryan Dutt	5	6	1	0	83.33
Brandon McMullencaught · Scott Edwards · Aryan Dutt 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Aryan Dutt	11	10	2	0	110.00
Liam Naylorlbw · Roelof van der Merwe 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Roelof van der Merwe	7	12	0	0	58.33
Finlay McCreathcaught · Zach Lion-Cachet · Kyle Klein 4 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	3	4.25	1
Kyle Klein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	2	9.50	0
Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.3	20	0	13.33	0
Zach Lion-Cachet0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	1
Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	0
Michael Levitt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	21	0	8.40	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	10	11/0
3	3	14/1
4	9	23/1
5	3	26/2
6	17	43/2
7	9	52/3
8	4	56/4
9	5	61/4
10	8	69/4
11	7	76/5
12	4	80/5
13	6	86/5
14	8	94/5
15	12	106/5
16	16	122/5
17	12	134/6
18	9	143/6
19	10	153/7
20	7	160/8

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.