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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
27 Aug 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Canada more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 53%; Canada batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WP Myburghcaught · Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Kaleem Sana | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Pierre Kotzecaught · Kaleem Sana · Harsh Thaker 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kaleem Sana · b Harsh Thaker | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
| Jan Frylinckbowled · Jaskaran Singh 12 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jaskaran Singh | 114 | 146 | 12 | 0 | 78.08 |
| Gerhard Erasmusbowled · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| DO Leichercaught · Shahid Ahmadzai · Kaleem Sana 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shahid Ahmadzai · b Kaleem Sana | 58 | 107 | 1 | 1 | 54.21 |
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (Namibia: 21% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 25* |
| 17 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 147.06 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 9 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 1 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 4.44 | 0 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 3.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaskaran Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 4 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 6.80 | 1 | 4 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 4.07 | 0 | 0 |
| Shahid Ahmadzai3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Shivam Sharma (3)1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3.57 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (WP Myburgh, 0.4) · 2-16 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 6.0) · 3-23 (Gerhard Erasmus, 8.1) · 4-174 (DO Leicher, 43.1) · 5-216 (Jan Frylinck, 47.5)
Recorded target: 220 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 15/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 16/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 20/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 23/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 26/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 29/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 30/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 33/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 34/3 |
| 14 | 9 | 43/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 46/3 |
| 16 | 11 | 57/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 59/3 |
| 18 | 10 | 69/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 73/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 77/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 77/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 78/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 79/3 |
| 24 | 7 | 86/3 |
| 25 | 0 | 86/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 88/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 94/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 107/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 109/3 |
| 31 | 0 | 109/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 112/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 117/3 |
| 34 | 0 | 117/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 120/3 |
| 36 | 5 | 125/3 |
| 37 | 9 | 134/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 142/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 148/3 |
| 40 | 7 | 155/3 |
| 41 | 7 | 162/3 |
| 42 | 5 | 167/3 |
| 43 | 7 | 174/3 |
| 44 | 4 | 178/4 |
| 45 | 6 | 184/4 |
| 46 | 5 | 189/4 |
| 47 | 17 | 206/4 |
| 48 | 12 | 218/5 |
| 49 | 2 | 220/5 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
