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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
27 Aug 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Canada more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 53%; Canada batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Nadeemcaught · DO Leicher · JJ Smit 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · DO Leicher · b JJ Smit | 46 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 69.70 |
| YS Samracaught · Ruben Trumpelmann · Bernard Scholtz 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ruben Trumpelmann · b Bernard Scholtz | 30 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 78.95 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · JJ Smit · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 20 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 57.14 |
| Harsh Thakercaught · Ruben Trumpelmann · Tangeni Lungameni 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ruben Trumpelmann · b Tangeni Lungameni | 18 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 51.43 |
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · JJ Smit 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · b JJ Smit | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (Namibia: 21% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 33.33 |
| Shreyas Movvacaught and bowled · Tangeni Lungameni 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Tangeni Lungameni | 14 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 56.00 |
|---|
| Jaskaran Singhlbw · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Shivam Sharma (3)caught · B Shikongo · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Shikongo · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 29 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 85.29 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarcaught · Ruben Trumpelmann · Tangeni Lungameni4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ruben Trumpelmann · b Tangeni Lungameni | 35 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 102.94 |
|---|
| Shahid Ahmadzaicaught · Zane Green · Ruben Trumpelmann 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zane Green · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sananot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 10* | 11 | 0 | 1 | 90.91 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Smit1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 4.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Ruben Trumpelmann1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 60 | 1 | 6.00 | 6 | 0 |
| Tangeni Lungameni1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 51 | 3 | 5.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 3.30 | 0 | 0 |
| DO Leicher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.1 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 3.07 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 5 | 0 |
1-72 (YS Samra, 12.5) · 2-99 (Pargat Singh, 22.1) · 3-105 (Ali Nadeem, 24.0) · 4-109 (Nicholas Kirton, 25.3) · 5-135 (Shreyas Movva, 33.1) · 6-138 (Harsh Thaker, 35.1) · 7-140 (Jaskaran Singh, 36.3) · 8-198 (Saad Bin Zafar, 46.0) · 9-200 (Shahid Ahmadzai, 46.2) · 10-219 (Shivam Sharma (3), 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 34/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 40/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 45/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 47/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 56/0 |
| 10 | 0 | 56/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 59/0 |
| 12 | 11 | 70/0 |
| 13 | 2 | 72/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 74/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 74/1 |
| 16 | 0 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 77/1 |
| 18 | 7 | 84/1 |
| 19 | 7 | 91/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 93/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 96/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 99/1 |
| 23 | 3 | 102/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 105/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 109/3 |
| 26 | 0 | 109/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 111/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 112/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 116/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 124/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 125/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 129/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 135/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 136/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 138/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 139/6 |
| 37 | 2 | 141/7 |
| 38 | 7 | 148/7 |
| 39 | 3 | 151/7 |
| 40 | 6 | 157/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 160/7 |
| 42 | 5 | 165/7 |
| 43 | 7 | 172/7 |
| 44 | 7 | 179/7 |
| 45 | 8 | 187/7 |
| 46 | 11 | 198/8 |
| 47 | 2 | 200/9 |
| 48 | 8 | 208/9 |
| 49 | 11 | 219/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 219/10 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
