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Rwanda Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2025 · Men
27 Jul 2025 · T20
Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Bahrain more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bahrain started on 92%; Bahrain batted first.
Bahrain's chances ranged from 91% to 100% during the match (Malawi: 0% to 9%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Limdawalacaught · Sohail Ahmed · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sohail Ahmed · b Ali Dawood | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Sami Sohailcaught · Ali Dawood · SS Shukla 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ali Dawood · b SS Shukla | 43 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 165.38 |
| D Kansonkhocaught · Ali Dawood · Imran Khan (5) 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Dawood · b Imran Khan (5) | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| SY Nihutecaught · Abdul Majeed · Asif Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdul Majeed · b Asif Ali | 10 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 52.63 |
| Kazim Somaninot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 24* | 29 | 2 | 0 | 82.76 |
| lbw · b Asif Ali |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| M Choambabowled · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rizwan Butt | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| P Zuzebowled · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rizwan Butt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| B Balalabowled · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ali Dawood | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| C Tchalerun out · Asif Ali, Ali Dawood · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Asif Ali, Ali Dawood | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| K Thuchilabowled · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rizwan Butt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Dawood1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 8.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Abdul Majeed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Rizwan Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Asif Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| SS Shukla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-39 (A Limdawala, 4.2) · 2-48 (D Kansonkho, 5.5) · 3-58 (Sami Sohail, 8.2) · 4-80 (SY Nihute, 13.1) · 5-82 (SZ Vayani, 13.4) · 6-90 (M Choamba, 15.3) · 7-90 (P Zuze, 15.4) · 8-91 (B Balala, 16.1) · 9-91 (C Tchale, 16.3) · 10-95 (K Thuchila, 17.3)
Recorded target: 190 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 30/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 39/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 39/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 49/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 53/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 57/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 61/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 66/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 67/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 72/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 80/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 84/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 88/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 91/7 |
| 17 | 3 | 94/9 |
| 18 | 1 | 95/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.