Sydney ThunderversusMelbourne Renegades

23 Nov 2024 · T20

Junction Oval, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 9 wickets

Sydney Thunder19.1 overs133/10 Melbourne Renegades14.2 overs137/1 Junction Oval, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Thunder started on 48%; Sydney Thunder batted first.

Sydney Thunder’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Sydney Thunder's chances ranged from 0% to 64% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 36% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: MH Illingworth to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. Melbourne Renegades up from 42% to 53%.
2.4: S Molineux to G Voll, G Voll out. Melbourne Renegades up from 45% to 56%.
12.1: SJ Coyte to GL Adams, GL Adams out. Melbourne Renegades up from 45% to 55%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Sydney Thunder chose to bat
Player of the match: Sophie Molineux
match referees: RL Parry
reserve umpires: L McCabe
tv umpires: C Grant
umpires: C Haysom, D Brigham

Match history & source

On 23 Nov 2024, Sydney Thunder played Melbourne Renegades at Junction Oval, Melbourne. Recorded result: Melbourne Renegades won by 9 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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