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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2026 · Men
24 Sept 2026 · ODI
Headingley · Venue photographEngland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 31%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Bantonstumped · Kusal Mendis · Dunith Wellalage 7 fours · 3 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Dunith Wellalage | 73 | 62 | 7 | 3 | 117.74 |
 Ben Duckettbowled · Dunith Wellalage9 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dunith Wellalage | 67 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 106.35 |
 Joe Rootcaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Sachindu Colombage1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Sachindu Colombage | 15 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 88.24 |
 Harry Brooklbw · Dunith Wellalage0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dunith Wellalage | 1 | 6 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 8% to 99% during the match (England: 1% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 16.67 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Kamindu Mendis · Dilshan Madushanka5 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Dilshan Madushanka | 69 | 49 | 5 | 5 | 140.82 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Janith Liyanage · Eshan Malinga4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Janith Liyanage · b Eshan Malinga | 52 | 61 | 4 | 2 | 85.25 |
|---|
 Rehan Ahmedcaught · Kusal Mendis · Dilshan Madushanka0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Dilshan Madushanka | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Eshan Malinga 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Eshan Malinga | 16 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Charith Asalanka · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charith Asalanka · b Asitha Fernando | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Jofra Archernot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 1 | 6.80 | 3 | 1 |
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 4.83 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 5.56 | 1 | 0 |
| Sachindu Colombage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 9.17 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 3 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
1-143 (Ben Duckett, 19.4) · 2-153 (Tom Banton, 22.0) · 3-157 (Harry Brook, 23.3) · 4-203 (Joe Root, 28.1) · 5-259 (Rehan Ahmed, 39.5) · 6-288 (Gus Atkinson, 46.5) · 7-295 (Jamie Overton, 47.4) · 8-303 (Will Jacks, 48.4) · 9-303 (Jos Buttler, 49.1)
Recorded target: 322 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 17 | 32/0 |
| 4 | 13 | 45/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 48/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 57/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 66/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 75/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 77/0 |
| 10 | 5 | 82/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 87/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 90/0 |
| 13 | 2 | 92/0 |
| 14 | 14 | 106/0 |
| 15 | 4 | 110/0 |
| 16 | 14 | 124/0 |
| 17 | 5 | 129/0 |
| 18 | 2 | 131/0 |
| 19 | 6 | 137/0 |
| 20 | 6 | 143/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 146/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 153/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 156/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 158/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 166/3 |
| 26 | 11 | 177/3 |
| 27 | 17 | 194/3 |
| 28 | 9 | 203/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 205/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 209/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 211/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 214/4 |
| 33 | 14 | 228/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 233/4 |
| 35 | 6 | 239/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 244/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 251/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 255/4 |
| 39 | 1 | 256/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 259/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 265/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 269/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 275/5 |
| 44 | 4 | 279/5 |
| 45 | 1 | 280/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 285/5 |
| 47 | 4 | 289/6 |
| 48 | 13 | 302/7 |
| 49 | 1 | 303/8 |
| 50 | 2 | 305/9 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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