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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2026 · Men
24 Sept 2026 · ODI
Headingley · Venue photographEngland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 31%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankalbw · Gus Atkinson 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Gus Atkinson | 25 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 75.76 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Harry Brook · Gus Atkinson 4 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Gus Atkinson | 54 | 65 | 4 | 3 | 83.08 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Tom Banton · Rehan Ahmed 14 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Tom Banton · b Rehan Ahmed | 121 | 100 | 14 | 3 | 121.00 |
| Pavan Rathnayakerun out · Joe Root, Jos Buttler · Jofra Archer 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Joe Root, Jos Buttler | 48 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 123.08 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Gus Atkinson · Rehan Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gus Atkinson · b Rehan Ahmed | 11 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 61.11 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 8% to 99% during the match (England: 1% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Janith Liyanagecaught · Joe Root · Jofra Archer4 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Joe Root · b Jofra Archer |
| 32 |
| 26 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 123.08 |
| Dunith Wellalagenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 15 | 1 | 0 | 106.67 |
|---|
| Sachindu Colombagenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 1 | 6.80 | 4 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 2 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Tongue0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 7.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 6.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Rehan Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-45 (Pathum Nissanka, 9.1) · 2-182 (Kamindu Mendis, 29.1) · 3-222 (Kusal Mendis, 35.5) · 4-236 (Charith Asalanka, 39.4) · 5-282 (Pavan Rathnayake, 44.4) · 6-312 (Janith Liyanage, 48.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 17 | 33/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 39/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 43/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 45/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 46/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 49/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 55/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 63/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 68/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 71/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 78/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 82/1 |
| 18 | 9 | 91/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 95/1 |
| 20 | 10 | 105/1 |
| 21 | 13 | 118/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 123/1 |
| 23 | 13 | 136/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 140/1 |
| 25 | 19 | 159/1 |
| 26 | 3 | 162/1 |
| 27 | 4 | 166/1 |
| 28 | 6 | 172/1 |
| 29 | 10 | 182/1 |
| 30 | 6 | 188/2 |
| 31 | 9 | 197/2 |
| 32 | 6 | 203/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 206/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 210/2 |
| 35 | 7 | 217/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 223/3 |
| 37 | 2 | 225/3 |
| 38 | 5 | 230/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 236/3 |
| 40 | 1 | 237/4 |
| 41 | 15 | 252/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 256/4 |
| 43 | 11 | 267/4 |
| 44 | 9 | 276/4 |
| 45 | 9 | 285/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 290/5 |
| 47 | 9 | 299/5 |
| 48 | 12 | 311/5 |
| 49 | 4 | 315/6 |
| 50 | 6 | 321/6 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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