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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier C · 2026 · Men
14 Aug 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Portugal started on 87%; Portugal batted first.
Portugal's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (Israel: 0% to 21%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJ Lazaruscaught · J Martins · Edward Fleming 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · J Martins · b Edward Fleming | 11 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 52.38 |
| WSLK Narayanacaught · Sirajullah Khadim · Sebastian de Oliveira 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sirajullah Khadim · b Sebastian de Oliveira | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Yogev Nagavkarbowled · J Martins 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b J Martins | 21 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 65.63 |
| Niv Nagavkarcaught · R Hashu · Edward Fleming 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Hashu · b Edward Fleming | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| SF Mangodabowled · R Hashu 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b R Hashu | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
| caught · R Hashu · b Edward Fleming |
| 5 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 35.71 |
| S Bangerabowled · R Hashu 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b R Hashu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| JE Markscaught · R Hashu · Sirajullah Khadim 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Hashu · b Sirajullah Khadim | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| G Schachatnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 22 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| AL Khunticaught · Sebastian de Oliveira · J Martins 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sebastian de Oliveira · b J Martins | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Elan Talkernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian de Oliveira0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 3.33 | 2 | 0 |
| U Shantu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| J Martins0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2.67 | 1 | 0 |
| R Hashu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Edward Fleming0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Sirajullah Khadim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Christopher De Freitas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (WSLK Narayana, 1.0) · 2-31 (Yogev Nagavkar, 8.4) · 3-36 (Niv Nagavkar, 10.0) · 4-43 (BJ Lazarus, 11.1) · 5-45 (SF Mangoda, 12.2) · 6-45 (S Bangera, 12.3) · 7-48 (JE Marks, 13.3) · 8-59 (Yair Nagavkar, 16.5) · 9-63 (AL Khunti, 18.3)
Recorded target: 164 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 14/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 30/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 32/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 36/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 43/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 45/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 48/6 |
| 14 | 1 | 49/7 |
| 15 | 4 | 53/7 |
| 16 | 3 | 56/7 |
| 17 | 3 | 59/8 |
| 18 | 3 | 62/8 |
| 19 | 3 | 65/9 |
| 20 | 4 | 69/9 |
Moisés Henriques: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
