**Kingsmead, Durban**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusPretoria Capitals

30 Jan 2024 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durban's Super Giants won by 8 runs

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs174/9 Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs166/9 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 56%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 0% to 52%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.5: CJ Dala to WG Jacks, WG Jacks out. Durban's Super Giants up from 48% to 62%.
2nd inns 10.4: CJ Dala to CN Ackermann, CN Ackermann out. Durban's Super Giants up from 52% to 69%.
2nd inns 13.3: Noor Ahmad to CA Ingram, CA Ingram out. Durban's Super Giants up from 72% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.