Melbourne RenegadesversusHobart Hurricanes

4 Jan 2024 · T20

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 6 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs147/4 Hobart Hurricanes18.4 overs148/4 Docklands Stadium, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 45%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: TH David to SE Marsh, SE Marsh out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 58% to 69%.
2nd inns 6.1: F O'Neill to BR McDermott, BR McDermott out. Melbourne Renegades up from 26% to 41%.
2nd inns 13.6: PM Siddle to CJ Anderson, four by CJ Anderson. Hobart Hurricanes up from 54% to 65%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades147/4 Hobart Hurricanes148/4

Innings 1