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England tour of India · 2024/25 · Men
28 Jan 2025 · T20
Saurashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Rajkot · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 13%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 8% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sanju Samsoncaught · Adil Rashid · Jofra Archer0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Adil Rashid · b Jofra Archer | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Abhishek Sharmacaught · Jofra Archer · Brydon Carse 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jofra Archer · b Brydon Carse | 24 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 171.43 |
 Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Philip Salt · Mark Wood1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Philip Salt · b Mark Wood | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 200.00 |
 Tilak Varmabowled · Adil Rashid1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Adil Rashid | 18 | 14 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 128.57 |
 Hardik Pandyacaught · Jos Buttler · Jamie Overton1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Jamie Overton | 40 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 114.29 |
|---|
 Washington Sundarcaught · Jos Buttler · Jamie Overton0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Jamie Overton | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Axar Patelcaught · Adil Rashid · Jofra Archer2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Adil Rashid · b Jofra Archer | 15 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 93.75 |
|---|
| Dhruv Jurelcaught · Philip Salt · Brydon Carse 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Philip Salt · b Brydon Carse | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Mohammed Shamicaught · Harry Brook · Jamie Overton0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Jamie Overton | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Ravi Bishnoinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Varun Chakravarthynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Mark Wood0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 9.67 | 4 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (Sanju Samson, 2.2) · 2-31 (Abhishek Sharma, 3.4) · 3-48 (Suryakumar Yadav, 5.1) · 4-68 (Tilak Varma, 8.0) · 5-85 (Washington Sundar, 12.1) · 6-123 (Axar Patel, 17.2) · 7-131 (Hardik Pandya, 18.1) · 8-140 (Mohammed Shami, 19.0) · 9-140 (Dhruv Jurel, 19.1)
Recorded target: 172 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 23/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 35/2 |
| 5 | 13 | 48/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 51/3 |
| 7 | 11 | 62/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 68/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 72/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 78/4 |
| 11 | 4 | 82/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 85/4 |
| 13 | 1 | 86/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 90/5 |
| 15 | 10 | 100/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 108/5 |
| 17 | 14 | 122/5 |
| 18 | 9 | 131/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 140/8 |
| 20 | 5 | 145/9 |
Sanju Samson: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Suryakumar Yadav: Kolkata Knight Riders - Official · CC BY 3.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Tilak Varma: Buchi Babu Sana · CC BY 4.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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