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Netherlands Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
5 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 45%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 1% to 48% during the match (Netherlands: 52% to 99%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Babette de Leedebowled · V Buruka 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b V Buruka | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| P Molkenboerbowled · Geua Tom 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Geua Tom | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Annemijn van Beugebowled · Geua Tom 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Geua Tom | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Robine Rijkecaught · K Frank · V Buruka 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · K Frank · b V Buruka | 60 | 75 | 5 | 1 | 80.00 |
| Iris Zwillingbowled · Isabel Toua 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Isabel Toua | 6 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
| Annemijn Thomson |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Pauke Siaka |
| 10 |
| 19 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 52.63 |
| Frederique Overdijkcaught · Tanya Ruma · Isabel Toua 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanya Ruma · b Isabel Toua | 16 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 43.24 |
|---|
| Caroline de Langenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 27 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Eva Lynchnot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 11 | 4 | 0 | 154.55 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 22 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V Buruka0 maidens · 6 wides · 2 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 3.14 | 6 | 2 |
| Geua Tom1 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 29 | 2 | 3.22 | 8 | 0 |
| HJ Thomas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sibona Jimmy0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 3.67 | 4 | 0 |
| Isabel Toua0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.1 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 7.68 | 2 | 0 |
| Pauke Siaka2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 2.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Vicky Araa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Babette de Leede, 0.1) · 2-5 (Annemijn van Beuge, 1.4) · 3-14 (P Molkenboer, 3.5) · 4-49 (Iris Zwilling, 14.3) · 5-84 (Annemijn Thomson, 20.4) · 6-113 (Robine Rijke, 29.3) · 7-124 (Frederique Overdijk, 33.3)
Recorded target: 149 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/2 |
| 3 | 8 | 13/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 14/3 |
| 5 | 1 | 15/3 |
| 6 | 1 | 16/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 19/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 22/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 23/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 31/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 39/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 40/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 45/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 47/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 49/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 53/4 |
| 17 | 11 | 64/4 |
| 18 | 11 | 75/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 77/4 |
| 20 | 7 | 84/4 |
| 21 | 0 | 84/5 |
| 22 | 2 | 86/5 |
| 23 | 3 | 89/5 |
| 24 | 0 | 89/5 |
| 25 | 1 | 90/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 93/5 |
| 27 | 6 | 99/5 |
| 28 | 6 | 105/5 |
| 29 | 6 | 111/5 |
| 30 | 4 | 115/6 |
| 31 | 1 | 116/6 |
| 32 | 4 | 120/6 |
| 33 | 4 | 124/6 |
| 34 | 10 | 134/7 |
| 35 | 3 | 137/7 |
| 36 | 5 | 142/7 |
| 37 | 3 | 145/7 |
| 38 | 4 | 149/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.