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Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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West Indies tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
15 Oct 2024 · T20
Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 18%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 85%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingstumped · Kusal Mendis · Dunith Wellalage 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Dunith Wellalage | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Evin Lewislbw · Mahesh Theekshana 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mahesh Theekshana | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Andre Fletchercaught · Kamindu Mendis · Dunith Wellalage 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Dunith Wellalage | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Kamindu Mendis · Dunith Wellalage0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Dunith Wellalage | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordbowled · Charith Asalanka2 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Charith Asalanka |
| 14 |
| 16 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 87.50 |
| Gudakesh Motiebowled · Charith Asalanka 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Charith Asalanka | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Rovman Powellcaught · Kusal Mendis · Matheesha Pathirana 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Matheesha Pathirana | 20 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 117.65 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdlbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Shamar Springercaught · Dunith Wellalage · Wanindu Hasaranga 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dunith Wellalage · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephbowled · Mahesh Theekshana 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 16 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2.21 | 0 | 0 |
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 2.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 10.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-12 (Brandon King, 3.0) · 2-14 (Evin Lewis, 3.4) · 3-17 (Roston Chase, 4.4) · 4-22 (Andre Fletcher, 6.5) · 5-38 (Gudakesh Motie, 9.2) · 6-39 (Sherfane Rutherford, 9.5) · 7-40 (Romario Shepherd, 10.1) · 8-60 (Shamar Springer, 12.5) · 9-83 (Rovman Powell, 15.1) · 10-89 (Alzarri Joseph, 16.1)
Recorded target: 163 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 16/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 18/3 |
| 6 | 3 | 21/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 24/4 |
| 8 | 4 | 28/4 |
| 9 | 10 | 38/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 40/6 |
| 11 | 5 | 45/7 |
| 12 | 4 | 49/7 |
| 13 | 12 | 61/8 |
| 14 | 6 | 67/8 |
| 15 | 16 | 83/8 |
| 16 | 6 | 89/9 |
| 17 | 0 | 89/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
