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Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
West Indies tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
15 Oct 2024 · T20
Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 18%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 85%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Alzarri Joseph 9 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Alzarri Joseph | 54 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 110.20 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Rovman Powell · Shamar Springer 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rovman Powell · b Shamar Springer | 26 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 104.00 |
| Kushal Janith Pereralbw · Shamar Joseph 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Shamar Joseph | 24 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Romario Shepherd 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Romario Shepherd | 19 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 135.71 |
| Charith Asalankabowled · Romario Shepherd 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Romario Shepherd | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Bhanuka Rajapaksanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| not out |
| 5* |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 71.43 |
 Wanindu Hasaranganot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 11.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamar Springer0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 12.00 | 7 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-77 (Kusal Mendis, 10.0) · 2-111 (Kushal Janith Perera, 13.4) · 3-127 (Pathum Nissanka, 15.5) · 4-141 (Charith Asalanka, 17.5) · 5-156 (Kamindu Mendis, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 25 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 40/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 52/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 54/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 61/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 64/0 |
| 10 | 13 | 77/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 79/1 |
| 12 | 11 | 90/1 |
| 13 | 14 | 104/1 |
| 14 | 11 | 115/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 118/2 |
| 16 | 9 | 127/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 134/3 |
| 18 | 8 | 142/4 |
| 19 | 11 | 153/4 |
| 20 | 9 | 162/5 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
