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Italy Women in Germany T20I Match · 2024 · Women
28 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Italy started on 61%; Italy batted first.
Italy's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Germany: 0% to 48%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janet Ronaldscaught · M Rathnayake · C Mahamalage 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Rathnayake · b C Mahamalage | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Anne Bierwischcaught and bowled · T Araliya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b T Araliya | 18 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
| Anuradha Doddaballapurrun out · M Rathnayake, EL Bartram · ECB Moore 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · M Rathnayake, EL Bartram | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Christina Goughcaught · M Rathnayake · S Kanankege 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Rathnayake · b S Kanankege | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Karthika Vijayaraghavancaught · S Kanankege · S Malwatta 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Kanankege · b S Malwatta | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 37.50 |
| A Kohlicaught · C Mahamalage · S Malwatta 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Mahamalage · b S Malwatta | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| S Kolcharamcaught · S Kanankege · LM Sims 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Kanankege · b LM Sims | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Sharanya Sadaranganirun out · EL Bartram · LM Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · EL Bartram | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| SR McAnanama-Breretonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 17 | 0 | 0 | 35.29 |
|---|
| A Meyenborgcaught · ECB Moore · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · ECB Moore · b Ilenia Sims | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| MS Beresfordnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL Bartram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| C Mahamalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| S Kanankege1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
| ECB Moore0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| S Malwatta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| T Araliya0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 3 | 1 |
| LM Sims0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Ilenia Sims0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 3.33 | 1 | 0 |
| D Nanayakkara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Janet Ronalds, 3.5) · 2-13 (Anuradha Doddaballapur, 6.0) · 3-16 (Christina Gough, 6.5) · 4-21 (Karthika Vijayaraghavan, 9.4) · 5-31 (A Kohli, 11.5) · 6-43 (S Kolcharam, 13.1) · 7-49 (Sharanya Sadarangani, 14.0) · 8-51 (Anne Bierwisch, 14.5) · 9-63 (A Meyenborg, 19.1)
Recorded target: 117 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 12/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 13/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 16/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 18/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 19/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 22/4 |
| 11 | 3 | 25/4 |
| 12 | 8 | 33/5 |
| 13 | 9 | 42/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 49/7 |
| 15 | 4 | 53/8 |
| 16 | 2 | 55/8 |
| 17 | 3 | 58/8 |
| 18 | 4 | 62/8 |
| 19 | 1 | 63/8 |
| 20 | 5 | 68/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.