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Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland vs South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
2 Oct 2024 · ODI
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 81%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 64% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 36%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Rickeltonbowled · Andrew McBrine7 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Andrew McBrine | 91 | 102 | 7 | 3 | 89.22 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Craig Young · Mark Adair 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Craig Young · b Mark Adair | 12 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
 Temba Bavumabowled · Craig Young1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Craig Young | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| HE van der Dussencaught · Andrew Balbirnie · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Mark Adair | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Mark Adair |
| 79 |
| 86 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 91.86 |
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Harry Tector · Craig Young1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Tector · b Craig Young | 11 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 61.11 |
|---|
| Andile Phehlukwayocaught · Andrew Balbirnie · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Mark Adair | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuincaught · Andrew Balbirnie · Graham Hume 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Graham Hume | 28 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 82.35 |
|---|
| Lizaad Williamscaught · Harry Tector · Craig Young 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Tector · b Craig Young | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 118.18 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidinot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 20* | 17 | 1 | 1 | 117.65 |
|---|
| Ottniel Baartmannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 4 | 5.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Graham Hume0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Craig Young1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 45 | 3 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew McBrine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Gavin Hoey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (Tony de Zorzi, 6.4) · 2-36 (Temba Bavuma, 7.4) · 3-39 (HE van der Dussen, 9.0) · 4-191 (Ryan Rickelton, 34.5) · 5-198 (Tristan Stubbs, 35.5) · 6-201 (Andile Phehlukwayo, 37.3) · 7-212 (Wiaan Mulder, 41.4) · 8-229 (Lizaad Williams, 44.3) · 9-254 (Bjorn Fortuin, 48.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 27/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 36/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 39/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 39/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 40/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 41/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 48/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 49/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 51/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 57/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 60/3 |
| 18 | 11 | 71/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 77/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 81/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 84/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 92/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 99/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 101/3 |
| 25 | 11 | 112/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 117/3 |
| 27 | 18 | 135/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 142/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 146/3 |
| 30 | 13 | 159/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 166/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 170/3 |
| 33 | 8 | 178/3 |
| 34 | 8 | 186/3 |
| 35 | 6 | 192/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 198/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 200/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 202/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 206/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 208/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 211/6 |
| 42 | 2 | 213/7 |
| 43 | 7 | 220/7 |
| 44 | 5 | 225/7 |
| 45 | 6 | 231/8 |
| 46 | 4 | 235/8 |
| 47 | 6 | 241/8 |
| 48 | 11 | 252/8 |
| 49 | 8 | 260/9 |
| 50 | 11 | 271/9 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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