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Photo: Ruth Sharville
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
New Zealand Women tour of England · 2024 · Women
30 Jun 2024 · ODI
New Road, Worcester · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 15%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (England: 82% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Beaumontrun out · Suzie Bates, Amelia Kerr · Amelia Kerr5 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Suzie Bates, Amelia Kerr | 28 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 90.32 |
| Maia Bouchiernot out 17 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 100* | 88 | 17 | 0 | 113.64 |
 Heather Knightcaught · Amelia Kerr · Brooke Halliday0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Amelia Kerr · b Brooke Halliday | 9 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 56.25 |
 Nat Sciver-Bruntnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.3 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 6.18 | 0 | 0 |
| Molly Penfold0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Fran Jonas0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 5.29 | 0 | 0 |
 Sophie Devine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooke Halliday0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-73 (Tammy Beaumont, 13.2) · 2-115 (Heather Knight, 19.0)
Recorded target: 142 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 38/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 39/0 |
| 9 | 12 | 51/0 |
| 10 | 11 | 62/0 |
| 11 | 1 | 63/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 67/0 |
| 13 | 6 | 73/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 79/1 |
| 15 | 17 | 96/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 103/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 109/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 110/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 115/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 122/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 127/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 133/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 137/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 138/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 142/2 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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