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Photo: Ruth Sharville
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
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New Zealand Women tour of England · 2024 · Women
30 Jun 2024 · ODI
New Road, Worcester · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 15%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (England: 82% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batescaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Filer1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Filer | 5 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Georgia Plimmercaught · Charlie Dean · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Dean · b Kate Cross | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
 Amelia Kerrcaught and bowled · Charlie Dean2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Charlie Dean | 43 | 86 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Sophie Devinestumped · Amy Jones · Sophie Ecclestone5 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Amy Jones · b Sophie Ecclestone |
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 34 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 82.35 |
 Maddy Greenlbw · Charlie Dean4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Charlie Dean | 30 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Brooke Hallidaybowled · Sophie Ecclestone 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone | 6 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Lauren Downbowled · Sophie Ecclestone 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazecaught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · Sophie Ecclestone 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · b Sophie Ecclestone | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrcaught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · Alice Capsey 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · b Alice Capsey | 14 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 127.27 |
|---|
| Molly Penfoldbowled · Sophie Ecclestone 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Fran Jonasnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kate Cross3 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 3.10 | 4 | 0 |
 Lauren Filer1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 4.38 | 1 | 0 |
 Sophie Ecclestone3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 2.78 | 0 | 0 |
 Nat Sciver-Brunt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 35 | 2 | 3.50 | 3 | 0 |
 Alice Capsey0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.40 | 0 | 1 |
1-8 (Georgia Plimmer, 4.3) · 2-10 (Suzie Bates, 5.3) · 3-56 (Sophie Devine, 17.3) · 4-114 (Maddy Green, 31.1) · 5-122 (Brooke Halliday, 35.0) · 6-124 (Lauren Down, 36.3) · 7-124 (Amelia Kerr, 37.3) · 8-124 (Izzy Gaze, 38.2) · 9-124 (Molly Penfold, 38.5) · 10-141 (Jess Kerr, 41.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 10/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 14/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 20/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 20/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 26/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 34/2 |
| 12 | 0 | 34/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 34/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 40/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 45/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 51/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 55/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 56/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 60/3 |
| 20 | 0 | 60/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 61/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 65/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 68/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 74/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 78/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 80/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 86/3 |
| 28 | 9 | 95/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 100/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 107/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 114/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 115/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 121/4 |
| 34 | 0 | 121/4 |
| 35 | 1 | 122/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 123/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 124/6 |
| 38 | 0 | 124/7 |
| 39 | 0 | 124/9 |
| 40 | 5 | 129/9 |
| 41 | 10 | 139/9 |
| 42 | 2 | 141/10 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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