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Pakistan Tri-Nation Series · 2024/25 · Men
8 Feb 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 25%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Youngcaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Shaheen Afridi1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Shaheen Afridi | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught and bowled · Abrar Ahmed5 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Abrar Ahmed | 25 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 131.58 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Shaheen Afridi7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Shaheen Afridi | 58 | 89 | 7 | 0 | 65.17 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Khushdil Shah · Abrar Ahmed 2 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Khushdil Shah |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 85%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 81 |
| 84 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 96.43 |
 Tom Lathamcaught · Kamran Ghulam · Haris Rauf0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamran Ghulam · b Haris Rauf | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipsnot out 6 fours · 7 sixes | not out | 106* | 74 | 6 | 7 | 143.24 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Saud Shakeel · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Saud Shakeel · b Shaheen Afridi | 31 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 134.78 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnernot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 88 | 3 | 8.80 | 2 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 1 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 4.10 | 1 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.2 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 3.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Khushdil Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 7.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.4 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 6.64 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Will Young, 0.4) · 2-39 (Rachin Ravindra, 7.4) · 3-134 (Kane Williamson, 26.2) · 4-135 (Tom Latham, 27.1) · 5-200 (Daryl Mitchell, 37.5) · 6-254 (Michael Bracewell, 45.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 28/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 33/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 39/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 40/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 42/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 51/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 52/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 54/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 58/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 60/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 67/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 19 | 11 | 83/2 |
| 20 | 12 | 95/2 |
| 21 | 11 | 106/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 108/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 115/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 121/2 |
| 25 | 6 | 127/2 |
| 26 | 6 | 133/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 135/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 139/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 146/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 149/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 152/4 |
| 32 | 9 | 161/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 164/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 169/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 176/4 |
| 36 | 11 | 187/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 191/4 |
| 38 | 9 | 200/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 205/5 |
| 40 | 2 | 207/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 208/5 |
| 42 | 14 | 222/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 230/5 |
| 44 | 2 | 232/5 |
| 45 | 14 | 246/5 |
| 46 | 13 | 259/6 |
| 47 | 12 | 271/6 |
| 48 | 17 | 288/6 |
| 49 | 17 | 305/6 |
| 50 | 25 | 330/6 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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