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Sri Lanka Women tour of Ireland · 2024 · Women
16 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 40%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbeslbw · Sachini Nisansala 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sachini Nisansala | 30 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 65.22 |
| Gaby Lewisbowled · Achini Kulasuriya 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Achini Kulasuriya | 9 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Amy Huntercaught · Achini Kulasuriya · Kavisha Dilhari 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Achini Kulasuriya · b Kavisha Dilhari | 42 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 93.33 |
| Orla Prendergastnot out 10 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 122* | 107 | 10 | 2 | 114.02 |
| Leah Paulcaught · Harshitha Madavi · Kavisha Dilhari 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harshitha Madavi · b Kavisha Dilhari | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 8% to 84% during the match (Ireland: 16% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Udeshika Prabodhani |
| 19 |
| 26 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 73.08 |
| Arlene Kellycaught and bowled · Kavisha Dilhari 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kavisha Dilhari | 12 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| A Tectorcaught · Chamari Atapattu · Kavisha Dilhari 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chamari Atapattu · b Kavisha Dilhari | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 14 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 4.70 | 2 | 0 |
 Achini Kulasuriya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 7.50 | 3 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 6.27 | 0 | 0 |
| Sachini Nisansala0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 4.40 | 3 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari1 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 54 | 4 | 5.40 | 2 | 2 |
1-20 (Gaby Lewis, 7.2) · 2-69 (Sarah Forbes, 15.4) · 3-116 (Amy Hunter, 25.1) · 4-138 (Leah Paul, 29.1) · 5-180 (Rebecca Stokell, 36.5) · 6-211 (Arlene Kelly, 43.2) · 7-211 (A Tector, 43.4)
Recorded target: 261 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 20/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 26/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 32/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 36/1 |
| 12 | 11 | 47/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 53/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 59/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 65/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 70/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 76/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 81/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 86/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 90/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 92/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 97/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 106/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 108/2 |
| 25 | 8 | 116/2 |
| 26 | 0 | 116/3 |
| 27 | 7 | 123/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 130/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 138/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 140/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 144/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 149/4 |
| 33 | 10 | 159/4 |
| 34 | 6 | 165/4 |
| 35 | 8 | 173/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 176/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 180/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 181/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 185/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 189/5 |
| 41 | 8 | 197/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 201/5 |
| 43 | 10 | 211/5 |
| 44 | 1 | 212/7 |
| 45 | 7 | 219/7 |
| 46 | 8 | 227/7 |
| 47 | 4 | 231/7 |
| 48 | 18 | 249/7 |
| 49 | 10 | 259/7 |
| 50 | 2 | 261/7 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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