KenyaversusSeychelles

18 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Kenya won by 91 runs

Kenya20.0 overs177/6 Seychelles17.0 overs86/10 Sikh Union Club Ground, Nairobi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kenya more likely to win

84%Kenya16%Seychelles

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Seychelles (1,540 vs 1,336 on our results rating)
Kenya are playing at home in Kenya
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Kenya won 1 and Seychelles won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kenya started on 83%; Kenya batted first.

Kenya’s chance of winning (%) · Seychelles is the rest

Kenya's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (Seychelles: 0% to 24%).

Biggest swings

11.2: N Krishna to N Mugabe, N Mugabe out. Seychelles up from 13% to 16%.
15.3: SKDT Madusanka to RR Patel, RR Patel out. Seychelles up from 18% to 22%.
2nd inns 1.3: Vraj Patel to TKP Rajapaksha, TKP Rajapaksha out. Kenya up from 90% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kenya177/6 Seychelles86/10

Innings 2

Seychelles

86/1017.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Seychelles batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mazharul Islamcaught · Irfan Karim · Lucas Oluoch 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Irfan Karim · b Lucas Oluoch	29	33	6	0	87.88
TKP Rajapakshabowled · Vraj Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Vraj Patel	4	3	1	0	133.33
SKDT Madusankacaught · Rakep Patel · Sachin Bhudia 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Rakep Patel · b Sachin Bhudia	19	21	2	1	90.48
M Mariyappancaught · Dhiren Gondaria · Lucas Oluoch 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dhiren Gondaria · b Lucas Oluoch	2	7	0	0	28.57
STRA de Silvalbw · Sachin Bhudia 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sachin Bhudia	4	10	0	0	40.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
GM Muthui0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	16	0	8.00	2
Vraj Patel1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	18	3	4.50	6
Francis Mutua0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	0	10.00	0
Sachin Gill0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	0	3.00	0
Sachin Bhudia0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	2	4.75	2
Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	2	3.00	0
Dhiren Gondaria0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	5	1	5.00	0
Rushab Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	1	2	1.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	4	14/1
3	10	24/1
4	12	36/1
5	6	42/1
6	6	48/1
7	4	52/1
8	2	54/1
9	5	59/2
10	8	67/3
11	2	69/4
12	5	74/4
13	2	76/4
14	4	80/5
15	0	80/7
16	5	85/8
17	1	86/10

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