Hobart HurricanesversusMelbourne Stars

15 Jan 2024 · T20

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 7 runs

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs187/8 Melbourne Stars20.0 overs180/4 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 44%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 44% to 99% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 2% to 56%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.5: NT Ellis to GJ Maxwell, GJ Maxwell out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 68% to 79%.
2nd inns 16.5: RP Meredith to BJ Webster, six by BJ Webster. Melbourne Stars up from 30% to 45%.
2nd inns 17.5: CJ Jordan to MP Stoinis, MP Stoinis out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 69% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes187/8 Melbourne Stars180/4

Innings 1