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Photo: Wss ltd
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West Indies tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
13 Oct 2024 · T20
Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 21%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 1% to 47% during the match (West Indies: 53% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Kushal Janith Perera · Kamindu Mendis 11 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kushal Janith Perera · b Kamindu Mendis | 63 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 190.91 |
| Evin Lewiscaught · Chamindu Wickramasinghe · Matheesha Pathirana 5 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Chamindu Wickramasinghe · b Matheesha Pathirana | 50 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 178.57 |
 Shai Hopecaught and bowled · Wanindu Hasaranga1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Kusal Mendis · Matheesha Pathirana1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Matheesha Pathirana | 19 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 118.75 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Wanindu Hasaranga · Mahesh Theekshana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wanindu Hasaranga · b Mahesh Theekshana | 13 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 72.22 |
|---|
| Sherfane Rutherfordnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 12 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamindu Wickramasinghe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 13.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 9.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 8.53 | 1 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-107 (Evin Lewis, 9.1) · 2-114 (Shai Hope, 10.1) · 3-128 (Brandon King, 11.4) · 4-160 (Rovman Powell, 16.1) · 5-167 (Roston Chase, 17.5)
Recorded target: 180 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 25/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 36/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 45/0 |
| 5 | 13 | 58/0 |
| 6 | 16 | 74/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 82/0 |
| 8 | 12 | 94/0 |
| 9 | 13 | 107/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 114/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 123/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 129/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 134/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 142/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 148/3 |
| 16 | 12 | 160/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 162/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 167/5 |
| 19 | 9 | 176/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 180/5 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
