EnglandversusNepal

8 Feb 2026 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 4 runs

England20.0 overs184/7 Nepal20.0 overs180/6 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

65%England35%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Nepal (1,764 vs 1,664 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 63%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

England's chances ranged from 13% to 83% during the match (Nepal: 17% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.6: L Wood to Gulsan Jha, Gulsan Jha out. England up from 18% to 39%.
2nd inns 19.5: SM Curran to Lokesh Bam, 0 runs to Lokesh Bam. England up from 62% to 80%.
2nd inns 19.6: SM Curran to Lokesh Bam, 1 run to Lokesh Bam. England up from 80% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England184/7 Nepal180/6

Innings 2

Nepal

180/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelcaught and bowled · Will Jacks 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b Will Jacks	29	17	4	1	170.59
Aasif Sheikhcaught · Luke Wood · Liam Dawson 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Luke Wood · b Liam Dawson	7	9	1	0	77.78
Rohit Kumarcaught · Philip Salt · Liam Dawson 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Philip Salt · b Liam Dawson	39	34	2	2	114.71
Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Tom Banton · Sam Curran 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tom Banton · b Sam Curran	44

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Luke Wood0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	1	10.33	3
Jofra Archer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	1	10.50	3
Liam Dawson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	2
Will Jacks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	1	8.50	1
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	42	0	14.00	0
Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	14	16/0
3	15	31/0
4	6	37/1
5	3	40/1
6	7	47/2
7	13	60/2
8	10	70/2
9	5	75/2
10	10	85/2
11	6	91/2
12	10	101/2
13	3	104/2
14	19	123/2
15	2	125/3
16	4	129/4
17	10	139/4
18	22	161/5
19	14	175/6
20	5	180/6

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