Northern DistrictsversusOtago

4 Jan 2026 · T20

Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 24 runs

Northern Districts19.4 overs138/10 Otago18.5 overs114/10 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 43%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Otago: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.6: LF Boucher to PM Inglis, PM Inglis out. Northern Districts up from 73% to 88%.
2nd inns 12.4: MW Downes to ON Gain, ON Gain out. Northern Districts up from 56% to 79%.
2nd inns 13.4: KA Knight to E Gray, E Gray out. Northern Districts up from 72% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts138/10 Otago114/10

Innings 1