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Photo: Javs1233
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
10 Oct 2025 · ODI
Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 57%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubya Haidercaught · Sophie Devine · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sophie Devine · b Jess Kerr | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 21.05 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rosemary Mair | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rosemary Mair · b Amelia Kerr | 4 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Sobhana Mostarycaught · Lea Tahuhu · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lea Tahuhu · b Jess Kerr | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Suzie Bates · b Lea Tahuhu |
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 11.11 |
2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Eden Carson | 34 | 80 | 2 | 0 | 42.50 |
|---|
| Shorna Akterlbw · Lea Tahuhu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lea Tahuhu | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Eden Carson · b Rosemary Mair | 17 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 53.13 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khancaught · Georgia Plimmer · Jess Kerr 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Jess Kerr | 25 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 64.10 |
|---|
| Nishita Akter Nishibowled · Lea Tahuhu 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lea Tahuhu | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 21 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 3.33 | 4 | 0 |
| Jess Kerr1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 21 | 3 | 2.63 | 5 | 0 |
| 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 | |
| 10.0 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 2.30 | 2 | 0 | |
| 6.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 3.67 | 7 | 0 | |
| Eden Carson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 3.39 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brooke Halliday0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-7 (Sharmin Akhter, 4.1) · 2-13 (Rubya Haider, 7.2) · 3-22 (Sobhana Mostary, 9.5) · 4-30 (Nigar Sultana, 12.2) · 5-30 (Sumaiya Akter, 13.2) · 6-33 (Shorna Akter, 14.0) · 7-66 (Nahida Akter, 22.5) · 8-110 (Rabeya Khan, 36.0) · 9-125 (Nishita Akter Nishi, 38.4) · 10-127 (Fahima Khatun, 39.5)
Recorded target: 228 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 9/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 10/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 13/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 14/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 17/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 22/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 29/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 30/3 |
| 13 | 0 | 30/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 33/6 |
| 15 | 5 | 38/6 |
| 16 | 2 | 40/6 |
| 17 | 1 | 41/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 44/6 |
| 19 | 1 | 45/6 |
| 20 | 6 | 51/6 |
| 21 | 1 | 52/6 |
| 22 | 9 | 61/6 |
| 23 | 5 | 66/7 |
| 24 | 2 | 68/7 |
| 25 | 5 | 73/7 |
| 26 | 2 | 75/7 |
| 27 | 2 | 77/7 |
| 28 | 5 | 82/7 |
| 29 | 3 | 85/7 |
| 30 | 3 | 88/7 |
| 31 | 1 | 89/7 |
| 32 | 3 | 92/7 |
| 33 | 6 | 98/7 |
| 34 | 3 | 101/7 |
| 35 | 3 | 104/7 |
| 36 | 6 | 110/8 |
| 37 | 6 | 116/8 |
| 38 | 4 | 120/8 |
| 39 | 5 | 125/9 |
| 40 | 2 | 127/10 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.