ZimbabweversusSouth Africa

1 Mar 2026 · T20

Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 5 wickets

Zimbabwe20.0 overs153/7 South Africa17.5 overs154/5 Arun Jaitley Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

23%Zimbabwe77%South Africa

Why

In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and Zimbabwe won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,705 vs 1,618 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 22%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 29% during the match (South Africa: 71% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: KT Maphaka to T Marumani, T Marumani out. South Africa up from 72% to 81%.
2nd inns 2.5: Sikandar Raza to AK Markram, AK Markram out. Zimbabwe up from 15% to 26%.
2nd inns 5.5: B Evans to RD Rickelton, RD Rickelton out. Zimbabwe up from 14% to 23%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe153/7 South Africa154/5

Innings 2

South Africa

154/517.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aiden Markrambowled · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sikandar Raza	4	5	0	0	80.00
Quinton de Kockcaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Sikandar Raza	0	2	0	0	0.00
Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Ryan Burl · Brad Evans 0 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Ryan Burl · b Brad Evans	31	22	0	4	140.91
Dewald Breviscaught · Ryan Burl · Sikandar Raza 2 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Ryan Burl · b Sikandar Raza

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	3	7.25	0	0
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.5	32	1	8.35	0	1
Brad Evans0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	1	7.33	1	0
Graeme Cremer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	27	0	13.50	0	0
Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	1	0
Ryan Burl0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	1	0
Brian Bennett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	8	12/1
3	6	18/2
4	3	21/2
5	9	30/2
6	13	43/3
7	16	59/3
8	6	65/3
9	17	82/3
10	11	93/4
11	10	103/5
12	11	114/5
13	6	120/5
14	6	126/5
15	3	129/5
16	9	138/5
17	9	147/5
18	7	154/5

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