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Photo: Barry Dogger
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Women's T20 World Cup · 2026 · Women
27 Jun 2026 · T20
County Ground, Bristol · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 37%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 8% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muneeba Alicaught · Iris Zwilling · Hannah Landheer 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Iris Zwilling · b Hannah Landheer | 12 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 92.31 |
| Gull Ferozanot out 9 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 63* | 52 | 9 | 0 | 121.15 |
| Ayesha Zafarcaught · Heather Siegers · Silver Siegers 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Heather Siegers · b Silver Siegers | 32 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 110.34 |
| Fatima Sanacaught · Sterre Kalis · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sterre Kalis · b Iris Zwilling | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Eyman Fatimacaught · Sterre Kalis · Caroline de Lange 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sterre Kalis · b Caroline de Lange | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| stumped · Babette de Leede · b Heather Siegers |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
| Saira Jabeencaught · Robine Rijke · Iris Zwilling 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Robine Rijke · b Iris Zwilling | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Tuba Hassannot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Heather Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Robine Rijke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Muneeba Ali, 3.1) · 2-94 (Ayesha Zafar, 13.2) · 3-102 (Fatima Sana, 15.2) · 4-107 (Eyman Fatima, 16.4) · 5-113 (Iram Javed, 18.3) · 6-118 (Saira Jabeen, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 46/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 52/1 |
| 10 | 12 | 64/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 72/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 76/1 |
| 13 | 12 | 88/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 96/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 102/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 102/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 107/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 112/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 118/5 |
| 20 | 8 | 126/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.