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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
16 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Sweden more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Guernsey started on 40%; Guernsey batted first.
Guernsey's chances ranged from 18% to 98% during the match (Sweden: 2% to 82%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Barkerrun out · Samiullah Rahmani, Abdul Naser Baluch · Abdul Naser Baluch 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Samiullah Rahmani, Abdul Naser Baluch | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Josh Butlerbowled · Abdul Naser Baluch 4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Abdul Naser Baluch | 43 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 134.38 |
| Tom Nightingalecaught · Zain Muzaffar · Zabiullah Zahid 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zain Muzaffar · b Zabiullah Zahid | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matthew Stokescaught · Abdul Naser Baluch · SN Swamy 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Abdul Naser Baluch · b SN Swamy | 51 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 124.39 |
| Isaac Damarellcaught · YS Chauhan · A Dhabe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · YS Chauhan · b A Dhabe | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Oliver Nightingalecaught · W Boshoff · Zabiullah Zahid 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · W Boshoff · b Zabiullah Zahid | 14 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| M Dale-Bradleyrun out · A Mundra, W Boshoff · Samiullah Rahmani 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · A Mundra, W Boshoff | 12 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| E Robinsonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| A Martelcaught · Abdul Naser Baluch · Samiullah Rahmani 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdul Naser Baluch · b Samiullah Rahmani | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Ben Ferbrachenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Naser Baluch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Zabiullah Zahid0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 4 | 0 |
| Zain Muzaffar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.2 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Samiullah Rahmani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.82 | 1 | 0 |
| A Dhabe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| SN Swamy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-2 (Lucas Barker, 0.2) · 2-8 (Tom Nightingale, 1.2) · 3-93 (Josh Butler, 12.1) · 4-106 (Matthew Stokes, 13.5) · 5-117 (Isaac Damarell, 16.2) · 6-125 (Oliver Nightingale, 17.2) · 7-143 (M Dale-Bradley, 19.2) · 8-147 (A Martel, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 11/2 |
| 3 | 7 | 18/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 19/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 25/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 32/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 39/2 |
| 8 | 12 | 51/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 59/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 70/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 12 | 18 | 93/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 98/3 |
| 14 | 9 | 107/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 113/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 117/4 |
| 17 | 7 | 124/5 |
| 18 | 7 | 131/6 |
| 19 | 10 | 141/6 |
| 20 | 10 | 151/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.