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Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Ireland vs South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
7 Oct 2024 · ODI
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 14%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Paul Stirling · Mark Adair0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Paul Stirling · b Mark Adair | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Reeza Hendrickscaught · Andrew Balbirnie · Graham Hume0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Graham Hume | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| HE van der Dussenlbw · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mark Adair | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Kyle Verreynnelbw · Craig Young 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Craig Young | 38 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 105.56 |
Ireland's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 86%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Craig Young |
| 20 |
| 45 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 44.44 |
| Jason Smithcaught · Mark Adair · Graham Hume 9 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Mark Adair · b Graham Hume | 91 | 93 | 9 | 4 | 97.85 |
|---|
| Andile Phehlukwayocaught · Craig Young · Fionn Hand 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Craig Young · b Fionn Hand | 23 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 82.14 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuinbowled · Matthew Humphreys 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Humphreys | 11 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 57.89 |
|---|
| Lizaad Williamscaught · Lorcan Tucker · Craig Young 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Craig Young | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidicaught · Lorcan Tucker · Graham Hume2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Graham Hume | 9 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Ottniel Baartmannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Adair1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 54 | 2 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Graham Hume3 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 3.16 | 2 | 0 |
 Fionn Hand0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Craig Young0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Humphreys2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 2.29 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Ryan Rickelton, 0.5) · 2-8 (Reeza Hendricks, 3.2) · 3-10 (HE van der Dussen, 4.1) · 4-59 (Kyle Verreynne, 13.0) · 5-79 (Tristan Stubbs, 19.5) · 6-126 (Andile Phehlukwayo, 28.5) · 7-159 (Bjorn Fortuin, 35.2) · 8-176 (Lizaad Williams, 38.5) · 9-209 (Jason Smith, 44.2) · 10-215 (Lungi Ngidi, 46.1)
Recorded target: 285 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 10/3 |
| 6 | 8 | 18/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 21/3 |
| 8 | 11 | 32/3 |
| 9 | 10 | 42/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 48/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 50/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 51/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 59/4 |
| 14 | 2 | 61/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 68/4 |
| 16 | 0 | 68/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 71/4 |
| 18 | 0 | 71/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 76/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 79/5 |
| 21 | 6 | 85/5 |
| 22 | 3 | 88/5 |
| 23 | 9 | 97/5 |
| 24 | 5 | 102/5 |
| 25 | 1 | 103/5 |
| 26 | 4 | 107/5 |
| 27 | 7 | 114/5 |
| 28 | 1 | 115/5 |
| 29 | 12 | 127/6 |
| 30 | 6 | 133/6 |
| 31 | 3 | 136/6 |
| 32 | 8 | 144/6 |
| 33 | 7 | 151/6 |
| 34 | 1 | 152/6 |
| 35 | 7 | 159/6 |
| 36 | 0 | 159/7 |
| 37 | 2 | 161/7 |
| 38 | 4 | 165/7 |
| 39 | 11 | 176/8 |
| 40 | 5 | 181/8 |
| 41 | 7 | 188/8 |
| 42 | 3 | 191/8 |
| 43 | 18 | 209/8 |
| 44 | 0 | 209/8 |
| 45 | 0 | 209/9 |
| 46 | 5 | 214/9 |
| 47 | 1 | 215/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Fionn Hand: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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