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Photo: A Cricket Premi
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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England tour of India · 2024/25 · Men
12 Feb 2025 · ODI
Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 78%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · Axar Patel · Arshdeep Singh4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Axar Patel · b Arshdeep Singh | 23 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 109.52 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Rohit Sharma · Arshdeep Singh8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Sharma · b Arshdeep Singh | 34 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 154.55 |
| Tom Bantoncaught · KL Rahul · Kuldeep Yadav 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Kuldeep Yadav | 38 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 92.68 |
 Joe Rootbowled · Axar Patel2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Axar Patel | 24 | 29 | 2 |
India's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 34%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 82.76 |
 Harry Brookbowled · Harshit Rana1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Harshit Rana | 19 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 73.08 |
|---|
 Jos Buttlerbowled · Harshit Rana0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harshit Rana | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Liam Livingstonestumped · KL Rahul · Washington Sundar 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · KL Rahul · b Washington Sundar | 9 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 39.13 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonbowled · Axar Patel 6 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Axar Patel | 38 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidbowled · Hardik Pandya0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hardik Pandya | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mark Woodcaught · Shreyas Iyer · Hardik Pandya2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Iyer · b Hardik Pandya | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 128.57 |
|---|
 Saqib Mahmoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 6.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 6.20 | 1 | 0 |
 Washington Sundar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 8.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Axar Patel1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.2 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 3.47 | 0 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 7.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-60 (Ben Duckett, 6.2) · 2-80 (Philip Salt, 8.4) · 3-126 (Tom Banton, 18.0) · 4-134 (Joe Root, 20.2) · 5-154 (Jos Buttler, 24.1) · 6-161 (Harry Brook, 27.0) · 7-174 (Liam Livingstone, 29.3) · 8-175 (Adil Rashid, 30.3) · 9-193 (Mark Wood, 32.1) · 10-214 (Gus Atkinson, 34.2)
Recorded target: 357 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 32/0 |
| 5 | 16 | 48/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 60/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 61/1 |
| 8 | 12 | 73/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 84/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 84/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 89/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 93/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 99/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 102/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 109/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 115/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 123/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 126/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 129/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 133/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 136/4 |
| 22 | 3 | 139/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 143/4 |
| 24 | 11 | 154/4 |
| 25 | 0 | 154/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 156/5 |
| 27 | 5 | 161/6 |
| 28 | 7 | 168/6 |
| 29 | 4 | 172/6 |
| 30 | 2 | 174/7 |
| 31 | 5 | 179/8 |
| 32 | 14 | 193/8 |
| 33 | 15 | 208/9 |
| 34 | 6 | 214/9 |
| 35 | 0 | 214/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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