Northern DiamondsversusThunder

19 May 2024 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Thunder won by 8 wickets

Northern Diamonds20.0 overs109/5 Thunder14.5 overs112/2 Old Trafford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Diamonds started on 47%; Northern Diamonds batted first.

Northern Diamonds’s chance of winning (%) · Thunder is the rest

Northern Diamonds's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (Thunder: 49% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: M Gaur to L Dobson, L Dobson out. Thunder up from 50% to 59%.
2.4: KL Cross to L Winfield-Hill, L Winfield-Hill out. Thunder up from 60% to 69%.
4.2: PC Graham to HJ Armitage, HJ Armitage out. Thunder up from 66% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.