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Photo: Mattbuck
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Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Vitality Blast Women · 2026 · Women
3 Jul 2026 · T20
Trent Bridge · Venue photographSurrey started on 43%; Surrey batted first.
Surrey's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (The Blaze: 0% to 81%).
Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Kellyrun out · Alice Monaghan, Jemima Spence · Kalea Moore 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Alice Monaghan, Jemima Spence | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Tammy Beaumontcaught · Ryana MacDonald-Gay · Kalea Moore4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryana MacDonald-Gay · b Kalea Moore | 37 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 102.78 |
| Kathryn Brycestumped · Jemima Spence · Ryana MacDonald-Gay 6 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Jemima Spence · b Ryana MacDonald-Gay | 31 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 147.62 |
| Charli Knottcaught · Kalea Moore · Laura Harris 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kalea Moore · b Laura Harris | 28 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 121.74 |
 |
| caught · Ryana MacDonald-Gay · b Kalea Moore |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Sarah Brycecaught · Alice Monaghan · Priyanaz Chatterji 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alice Monaghan · b Priyanaz Chatterji | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Emma Joneslbw · Danielle Gregory 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Danielle Gregory | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| PV Thanawalastumped · Jemima Spence · Kalea Moore 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Jemima Spence · b Kalea Moore | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Kirstie Gordonbowled · Kalea Moore0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kalea Moore | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Josie Grovesnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| M Andrewsstumped · Jemima Spence · Kalea Moore 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Jemima Spence · b Kalea Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalea Moore0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryana MacDonald-Gay0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Alice Monaghan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Laura Harris0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Gregory0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Marie Kelly, 0.1) · 2-56 (Kathryn Bryce, 6.5) · 3-98 (Charli Knott, 13.0) · 4-105 (Tammy Beaumont, 14.2) · 5-108 (Georgia Elwiss, 14.5) · 6-111 (Emma Jones, 15.4) · 7-111 (Sarah Bryce, 16.2) · 8-120 (PV Thanawala, 18.2) · 9-121 (Kirstie Gordon, 18.4) · 10-121 (M Andrews, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 13 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 13 | 37/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 45/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 48/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 56/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 60/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 71/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 75/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 83/2 |
| 12 | 12 | 95/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 98/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 105/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 108/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 111/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 115/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 119/7 |
| 19 | 2 | 121/10 |
Paige Scholfield: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kirstie Gordon: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Georgia Elwiss: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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