Sydney ThunderversusMelbourne Renegades

11 Nov 2025 · T20

Junction Oval, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 4 wickets

Sydney Thunder20.0 overs148/7 Melbourne Renegades18.1 overs151/6 Junction Oval, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Thunder started on 41%; Sydney Thunder batted first.

Sydney Thunder’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Sydney Thunder's chances ranged from 0% to 82% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 18% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.4: G Voll to A Capsey, A Capsey out. Sydney Thunder up from 55% to 72%.
2nd inns 10.5: AC Jayangani to DJS Dottin, DJS Dottin out. Sydney Thunder up from 59% to 81%.
2nd inns 13.2: AC Jayangani to G Wareham, 1 run to G Wareham. Melbourne Renegades up from 42% to 61%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Melbourne Renegades chose to field
Player of the match: Georgia Wareham
match referees: RL Parry
reserve umpires: Malcolm Wood
tv umpires: Bede Sajowitz
umpires: C Grant, D Brigham

Match history & source

On 11 Nov 2025, Sydney Thunder played Melbourne Renegades at Junction Oval, Melbourne. Recorded result: Melbourne Renegades won by 4 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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