Delhi CapitalsversusGujarat Giants

3 Mar 2024 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Delhi Capitals won by 25 runs

Delhi Capitals20.0 overs163/8 Gujarat Giants20.0 overs138/8 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Delhi Capitals started on 57%; Delhi Capitals batted first.

Delhi Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · Gujarat Giants is the rest

Delhi Capitals's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Gujarat Giants: 0% to 43%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.2: JL Jonassen to BL Mooney, BL Mooney out. Delhi Capitals up from 71% to 81%.
2nd inns 4.5: JL Jonassen to P Litchfield, P Litchfield out. Delhi Capitals up from 77% to 87%.
2nd inns 14.2: JL Jonassen to A Gardner, A Gardner out. Delhi Capitals up from 82% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.