BangladeshversusAustralia

27 Mar 2024 · ODI

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 8 wickets

Bangladesh26.2 overs89/10 Australia18.3 overs93/2 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

12%Bangladesh88%Australia

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,866 vs 1,386 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 3 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 3 and Bangladesh won 0

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 10%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 10% during the match (Australia: 90% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: EA Perry to Sumaiya Akter, Sumaiya Akter out. Australia up from 90% to 93%.
2.6: KJ Garth to Fargana Hoque, Fargana Hoque out. Australia up from 92% to 94%.
7.4: EA Perry to Murshida Khatun, Murshida Khatun out. Australia up from 92% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh89/10 Australia93/2

Innings 1

Bangladesh

89/1026.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Fargana Hoquecaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Kim Garth 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Kim Garth	5	14	1	0	35.71
Sumaiya Aktercaught · Grace Harris · Ellyse Perry 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Grace Harris · b Ellyse Perry	0	4	0	0	0.00
Murshida Khatuncaught · Alyssa Healy · Ellyse Perry 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alyssa Healy · b Ellyse Perry	8	21	1	0	38.10
Nigar Sultanacaught · Alyssa Healy · Sophie Molineux 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alyssa Healy

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kim Garth4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	4	11	3	1.57	0
Ellyse Perry1 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	2	4.25	9
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	0	3.50	2
Sophie Molineux2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	2	23	2	3.29	1
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	6.2	0	25	3	3.95	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	4	4/1
3	4	8/2
4	3	11/2
5	3	14/2
6	10	24/2
7	0	24/2
8	2	26/3
9	0	26/3
10	6	32/3
11	0	32/5
12	5	37/5
13	4	41/5
14	1	42/5
15	3	45/5
16	6	51/5
17	2	53/5
18	0	53/6
19	1	54/6
20	0	54/6
21	5	59/7
22	1	60/8
23	4	64/9
24	5	69/9
25	9	78/9
26	10	88/9
27	1	89/10

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