**Seddon Park, Hamilton**
Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men

WellingtonversusNorthern Districts

1 Jan 2025 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 6 wickets

Wellington20.0 overs160/8 Northern Districts18.2 overs166/4 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Wellington started on 46%; Wellington batted first.

Wellington’s chance of winning (%) · Northern Districts is the rest

Wellington's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (Northern Districts: 51% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: KDC Clarke to JM Tashkoff, JM Tashkoff out. Northern Districts up from 51% to 64%.
1.1: N Wagner to TA Blundell, TA Blundell out. Northern Districts up from 64% to 76%.
5.5: N Wagner to TM Johnson, TM Johnson out. Northern Districts up from 57% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Wellington chose to bat
Player of the match: Joe Carter
match referees: GB Troup
reserve umpires: SB Martin
tv umpires: GG Pennell
umpires: C Black, PJ Pasco

Match history & source

On 1 Jan 2025, Wellington played Northern Districts at Seddon Park, Hamilton. Recorded result: Northern Districts won by 6 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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