Hong KongversusKuwait

24 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Kuwait won by 2 wickets

Hong Kong20.0 overs144/6 Kuwait19.3 overs145/8 Selangor Turf Club, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

61%Hong Kong39%Kuwait

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 3 and Kuwait won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Kuwait (1,531 vs 1,499 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 57%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Kuwait is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 3% to 96% during the match (Kuwait: 4% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.6: Ehsan Khan to Shiraz Khan, Shiraz Khan out. Hong Kong up from 61% to 78%.
2nd inns 17.1: A Mehmood to Bilal Tahir, six by Bilal Tahir. Kuwait up from 22% to 44%.
2nd inns 17.4: A Mehmood to Muhammad Umar, six by Muhammad Umar. Kuwait up from 56% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong144/6 Kuwait145/8

Innings 2

Kuwait

145/819.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kuwait batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ravija Sandaruwancaught · Nizakat Khan · Yasim Murtaza 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Nizakat Khan · b Yasim Murtaza	42	34	2	3	123.53
Clinto Antobowled · Ehsan Khan 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Ehsan Khan	15	9	2	1	166.67
Meet Bhavsarlbw · Ehsan Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ehsan Khan	5	5	0	0	100.00
Usman Patelbowled · Yasim Murtaza 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Yasim Murtaza	8	10	0	1	80.00
Mohomad Aslamcaught · Ateeq Iqbal · Anas Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ateeq Iqbal · b Anas Khan	11	13	0	0	84.62

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Adil Mehmood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	36	0	12.00	1
Ateeq Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	15	0	15.00	0
Anas Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	2	6.25	0
Yasim Murtaza1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	2	3.25	0
Ehsan Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	4	5.50	2
Anshuman Rath0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	0	17	0	6.80	0
Aizaz Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	17	0	17.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	15	24/0
3	9	33/0
4	11	44/0
5	0	44/0
6	8	52/1
7	4	56/1
8	4	60/2
9	5	65/3
10	7	72/3
11	4	76/4
12	4	80/5
13	4	84/5
14	3	87/6
15	10	97/6
16	17	114/6
17	6	120/7
18	18	138/7
19	4	142/8
20	3	145/8

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.