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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
16 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Italy started on 59%; Italy batted first.
Italy's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (Romania: 0% to 42%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taranjeet Singhcaught · J Mosca · Harry Manenti 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · J Mosca · b Harry Manenti | 31 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 163.16 |
| AN Lasculbw · CJPF Kalugamage 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b CJPF Kalugamage | 17 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 65.38 |
| V Sainicaught · Joe Burns · CJPF Kalugamage 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Burns · b CJPF Kalugamage | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Muhammad Moizcaught · Gian-Piero Meade · S di Bartolomeo 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gian-Piero Meade · b S di Bartolomeo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 140.00 |
| Rameez Khancaught · Thomas Draca · CJPF Kalugamage 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Thomas Draca · b CJPF Kalugamage | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| bowled · b Thomas Draca |
| 6 |
| 11 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 54.55 |
| A Rajshekaracaught · J Mosca · S di Bartolomeo 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · J Mosca · b S di Bartolomeo | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| S Vashishtbowled · Jaspreet Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jaspreet Singh | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 35.29 |
|---|
| Ali Hussaincaught · Joe Burns · Thomas Draca 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Burns · b Thomas Draca | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| P Hingoraninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Kolicaught · Thomas Draca · Jaspreet Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Thomas Draca · b Jaspreet Singh | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Manenti0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Thomas Draca1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 3 | 0 |
 Gareth Berg0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| S di Bartolomeo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaspreet Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 0 |
1-49 (Taranjeet Singh, 6.0) · 2-57 (AN Lascu, 7.5) · 3-60 (V Saini, 9.2) · 4-62 (Rameez Khan, 10.0) · 5-68 (Muhammad Moiz, 10.2) · 6-68 (A Rajshekara, 11.0) · 7-81 (S Nadigotla, 14.3) · 8-84 (Ali Hussain, 16.3) · 9-84 (S Vashisht, 17.1) · 10-84 (M Koli, 17.4)
Recorded target: 245 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 16 | 45/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 55/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 57/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 60/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 62/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 68/6 |
| 12 | 5 | 73/6 |
| 13 | 4 | 77/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 80/6 |
| 15 | 1 | 81/7 |
| 16 | 1 | 82/7 |
| 17 | 2 | 84/8 |
| 18 | 0 | 84/10 |
Gareth Berg: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
