AustriaversusSwitzerland

1 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Austria won by 17 runs

Austria20.0 overs190/3 Switzerland19.5 overs173/10 Velden Cricket Ground, Latschach ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Austria more likely to win

68%Austria32%Switzerland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Switzerland (1,542 vs 1,475 on our results rating)
Austria are playing at home in Austria
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Austria won 2 and Switzerland won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Austria started on 68%; Austria batted first.

Austria’s chance of winning (%) · Switzerland is the rest

Austria's chances ranged from 58% to 100% during the match (Switzerland: 0% to 42%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Ali Nayyer to Bilal Zalmai, Bilal Zalmai out. Switzerland up from 29% to 40%.
1.4: H Elder to Karanbir Singh, six by Karanbir Singh. Austria up from 58% to 64%.
2nd inns 6.4: Sahel Zadran to Ahmed Hassan, Ahmed Hassan out. Austria up from 84% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Austria190/3 Switzerland173/10

Innings 2

Switzerland

173/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Switzerland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Faheem Nazircaught · J Ghelzai · Waqar Zalmai 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Ghelzai · b Waqar Zalmai	10	5	2	0	200.00
Idrees Ul Haquecaught · Amar Naeem · Aqib Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amar Naeem · b Aqib Iqbal	2	4	0	0	50.00
Ahmed Hassancaught · Mansoor Safi · Sahel Zadran 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mansoor Safi · b Sahel Zadran	21	14	2	1	150.00
Arjun Vinodcaught · Umair Tariq · Bilal Zalmai 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Umair Tariq · b Bilal Zalmai	38	35	3	2	108.57
H Deshancaught · Aqib Iqbal · Umair Tariq 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aqib Iqbal · b Umair Tariq	8	7	1	0	114.29

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aqib Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	1	11.50	0
Waqar Zalmai0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	3
Sahel Zadran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Bilal Zalmai0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	2
Umair Tariq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	32	5	8.35	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	10	17/2
3	11	28/2
4	9	37/2
5	6	43/2
6	11	54/2
7	5	59/3
8	9	68/3
9	3	71/4
10	8	79/5
11	13	92/5
12	6	98/6
13	14	112/6
14	4	116/6
15	15	131/7
16	13	144/7
17	4	148/7
18	14	162/7
19	9	171/7
20	2	173/10

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