NetherlandsversusThailand

31 Jan 2025 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Thailand won by 8 wickets

Netherlands20.0 overs122/6 Thailand18.0 overs125/2 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

39%Netherlands61%Thailand

Why

In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 6 and Netherlands won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Netherlands (1,586 vs 1,572 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 39%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Thailand: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: P Maya to SL Kalis, P Molkenboer out. Thailand up from 61% to 69%.
2.4: C Sutthiruang to SL Kalis, SL Kalis out. Thailand up from 63% to 71%.
2nd inns 2.2: IJR Zwilling to N Boochatham, N Boochatham out. Netherlands up from 23% to 32%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands122/6 Thailand125/2

Innings 2

Thailand

125/218.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nattaya Boochathamcaught · Robine Rijke · Iris Zwilling 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Robine Rijke · b Iris Zwilling	10	11	2	0	90.91
Aphisara Suwanchonrathicaught · Eva Lynch · Caroline de Lange 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Eva Lynch · b Caroline de Lange	28	24	4	0	116.67
Nannapat Koncharoenkainot out 5 fours · 0 sixes	not out	56*	50	5	0	112.00
Natthakan Chantamnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes	not out	23*	25	2

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	24	1	6.00	1	0
I van der Woning0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	21	0	10.50	2	0
Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	0	5.00	0	0
Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	22	1	7.33	0	1
Eva Lynch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	0	6.33	1	0
CH van Koolwijk0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	0	13	0	13.00	2	1
P Molkenboer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	9	15/0
3	7	22/1
4	12	34/1
5	0	34/1
6	3	37/1
7	7	44/1
8	7	51/1
9	7	58/2
10	9	67/2
11	8	75/2
12	13	88/2
13	11	99/2
14	1	100/2
15	3	103/2
16	9	112/2
17	7	119/2
18	6	125/2

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