**Dubai International Cricket Stadium**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2026 · Women

PakistanversusSri Lanka

11 Sept 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 4 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs130/5 Sri Lanka18.4 overs134/6 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

28%Pakistan72%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Pakistan (1,693 vs 1,532 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 26%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 1% to 83% during the match (Sri Lanka: 17% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.1: Fatima Sana to H Madavi, H Madavi out. Pakistan up from 33% to 49%.
2nd inns 16.6: Fatima Sana to WK Dilhari, WK Dilhari out. Pakistan up from 29% to 46%.
2nd inns 18.2: Fatima Sana to EMKNH Senavirathna, 1 run to EMKNH Senavirathna. Sri Lanka up from 79% to 99%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan130/5 Sri Lanka134/6

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

134/618.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Chamari Atapattucaught · Sadaf Shamas · Fatima Sana 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sadaf Shamas · b Fatima Sana	5	6	1	0	83.33
Imesha Dulanicaught · Muneeba Ali · Umm-e-Hani 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muneeba Ali · b Umm-e-Hani	24	21	4	0	114.29
S Kavindicaught · Shawaal Zulfiqar · Fatima Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shawaal Zulfiqar · b Fatima Sana	0	1	0	0	0.00
Hasini Pereracaught · Ayesha Zafar · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ayesha Zafar · b Sadia Iqbal	3	8	0	0	37.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	NB
Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	0
Fatima Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	3.4	38	4	10.36	2
Umm-e-Hani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	0
Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	0	5.75	0
Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	0
Ayesha Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	2	7/2
3	5	12/2
4	11	23/2
5	6	29/2
6	2	31/3
7	4	35/4
8	5	40/4
9	5	45/4
10	8	53/4
11	14	67/4
12	5	72/4
13	8	80/4
14	8	88/4
15	7	95/4
16	5	100/4
17	9	109/6
18	9	118/6
19	16	134/6

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