**Dubai International Cricket Stadium**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2026 · Women

PakistanversusSri Lanka

11 Sept 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 4 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs130/5 Sri Lanka18.4 overs134/6 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

28%Pakistan72%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Pakistan (1,693 vs 1,532 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 26%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 1% to 83% during the match (Sri Lanka: 17% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.1: Fatima Sana to H Madavi, H Madavi out. Pakistan up from 33% to 49%.
2nd inns 16.6: Fatima Sana to WK Dilhari, WK Dilhari out. Pakistan up from 29% to 46%.
2nd inns 18.2: Fatima Sana to EMKNH Senavirathna, 1 run to EMKNH Senavirathna. Sri Lanka up from 79% to 99%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan130/5 Sri Lanka134/6

Innings 1

Pakistan

130/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Muneeba Alicaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Sugandika Kumari 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Sugandika Kumari	2	8	0	0	25.00
Shawaal Zulfiqarcaught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · Chamari Atapattu 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b Chamari Atapattu	24	16	2	2	150.00
Gull Ferozacaught · Chamari Atapattu · C Praboda 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chamari Atapattu · b C Praboda	21	32	1	0	65.63
Ayesha Zafarcaught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · Chamari Atapattu 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b Chamari Atapattu	7	8	1	0	87.50
Sadaf Shamascaught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · C Praboda 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kaushini Nuthyangana · b C Praboda	8

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
M Ayodhya0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	0	8.25	5	0
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0	0
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	1	0
C Praboda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	0	6.67	0	0
Nilakshi de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	6	0	6.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	3	5/1
3	14	19/1
4	4	23/1
5	6	29/2
6	4	33/2
7	6	39/3
8	4	43/3
9	6	49/3
10	3	52/4
11	1	53/4
12	9	62/4
13	13	75/4
14	6	81/4
15	2	83/4
16	9	92/5
17	4	96/5
18	10	106/5
19	14	120/5
20	10	130/5

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