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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
9 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Portugal started on 66%; Portugal batted first.
Portugal's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Hungary: 1% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Vijaycaught · Muhammad Burhan · Sheikh Rasik 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Muhammad Burhan · b Sheikh Rasik | 42 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 127.27 |
| Imran Khan (4)caught · HV Mandhyan · SA Mohandas 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HV Mandhyan · b SA Mohandas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Suman Ghimirecaught · Ali Yalmaz · Sheikh Rasik 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Yalmaz · b Sheikh Rasik | 26 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 136.84 |
| ARA Chambersbowled · Abbas Ghani 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abbas Ghani | 33 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 106.45 |
| Amir Zaibcaught · Abbas Ghani · Sheikh Rasik 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abbas Ghani · b Sheikh Rasik | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| caught · Abbas Ghani · b Muhammad Burhan |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| F Stomancaught · M Fontaine · HV Mandhyan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Fontaine · b HV Mandhyan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Amandeep Singhstumped · V Ravindran · HV Mandhyan 2 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · V Ravindran · b HV Mandhyan | 22 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 122.22 |
|---|
| Sirajullah Khadimcaught · Muhammad Burhan · Abbas Ghani 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Burhan · b Abbas Ghani | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| J Khannot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA Mohandas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Abbas Ghani0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 9.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Sheikh Rasik0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Muhammad Burhan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| HV Mandhyan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| M Fontaine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Imran Khan (4), 0.2) · 2-64 (Suman Ghimire, 7.1) · 3-77 (J Vijay, 9.2) · 4-78 (Amir Zaib, 10.0) · 5-79 (Najjam Shahzad, 10.4) · 6-80 (F Stoman, 11.4) · 7-126 (Amandeep Singh, 17.1) · 8-139 (ARA Chambers, 19.2) · 9-147 (Sirajullah Khadim, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/1 |
| 2 | 7 | 16/1 |
| 3 | 12 | 28/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 38/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 47/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 56/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 64/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 66/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 73/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 78/4 |
| 11 | 1 | 79/5 |
| 12 | 1 | 80/6 |
| 13 | 7 | 87/6 |
| 14 | 6 | 93/6 |
| 15 | 12 | 105/6 |
| 16 | 7 | 112/6 |
| 17 | 14 | 126/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 130/7 |
| 19 | 9 | 139/7 |
| 20 | 8 | 147/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.