**Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium**
Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women

PakistanversusSri Lanka

26 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 3 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs140/4 Sri Lanka19.5 overs141/7 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

22%Pakistan78%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Pakistan (1,676 vs 1,480 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 6 and Sri Lanka won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 20%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 4% to 56% during the match (Sri Lanka: 44% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.6: Umaima Sohail to H Madavi, H Madavi out. Pakistan up from 41% to 56%.
2nd inns 18.3: Nashra Sandhu to BMSM Kumari, four by BMSM Kumari. Sri Lanka up from 72% to 87%.
2nd inns 19.5: Nida Dar to MAA Sanjeewani, 1 run to MAA Sanjeewani. Sri Lanka up from 80% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan140/4 Sri Lanka141/7

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

141/719.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnelbw · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sadia Iqbal	0	3	0	0	0.00
Chamari Atapattubowled · Sadia Iqbal 9 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Sadia Iqbal	63	48	9	1	131.25
Harshitha Madavilbw · Umaima Sohail 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Umaima Sohail	12	13	2	0	92.31
Kavisha Dilharicaught · Syeda Aroob Shah · Sadia Iqbal 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Syeda Aroob Shah · b Sadia Iqbal	17	18	2	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	4	4.00	0	0
Nida Dar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	20	1	7.06	3	0
Umaima Sohail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	1	5.33	0	0
Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	0	8.75	2	0
Syeda Aroob Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	1	1
Fatima Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	0	7.33	0	0
Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	8	9/1
3	5	14/1
4	5	19/2
5	9	28/2
6	7	35/2
7	2	37/2
8	7	44/2
9	15	59/2
10	10	69/2
11	5	74/2
12	4	78/4
13	4	82/4
14	11	93/4
15	13	106/4
16	9	115/4
17	6	121/5
18	4	125/6
19	13	138/6
20	3	141/7

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