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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Pakistan tour of Bangladesh · 2025/26 · Men
15 Mar 2026 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 42%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahibzada Farhancaught · Litton Das · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Taskin Ahmed | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Maaz Sadaqatcaught · Litton Das · Nahid Rana 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Nahid Rana | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 120.00 |
| Ghazi Ghoribowled · Nahid Rana 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nahid Rana | 29 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 74.36 |
 Mohammad Rizwanbowled · Taskin Ahmed1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taskin Ahmed | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Abdul Samadcaught · Litton Das · Mustafizur Rahman 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Mustafizur Rahman |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 41% to 98% during the match (Pakistan: 2% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 34 |
| 45 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 75.56 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Taskin Ahmed 9 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Taskin Ahmed | 106 | 98 | 9 | 4 | 108.16 |
|---|
| Saad Masoodbowled · Mustafizur Rahman 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mustafizur Rahman | 38 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 86.36 |
|---|
| Fahim Ashrafbowled · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taskin Ahmed | 9 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 45.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridistumped · Litton Das · Rishad Hossain2 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Litton Das · b Rishad Hossain | 37 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 97.37 |
|---|
 Haris Raufcaught · Mehedi Hasan · Mustafizur Rahman0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Mustafizur Rahman | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Abrar Ahmednot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 49 | 4 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Nahid Rana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 2 | 6.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 3 | 5.40 | 3 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 8.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Saif Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Sahibzada Farhan, 0.5) · 2-12 (Maaz Sadaqat, 1.5) · 3-17 (Mohammad Rizwan, 2.5) · 4-67 (Ghazi Ghori, 14.0) · 5-82 (Abdul Samad, 17.4) · 6-161 (Saad Masood, 31.2) · 7-209 (Fahim Ashraf, 39.3) · 8-261 (Salman Ali Agha, 47.4) · 9-277 (Haris Rauf, 49.0) · 10-279 (Shaheen Afridi, 50.0)
Recorded target: 291 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 10 | 16/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 17/3 |
| 4 | 10 | 27/3 |
| 5 | 8 | 35/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 37/3 |
| 7 | 0 | 37/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 41/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 42/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 43/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 46/3 |
| 12 | 12 | 58/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 63/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 67/4 |
| 15 | 1 | 68/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 70/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 78/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 83/5 |
| 19 | 9 | 92/5 |
| 20 | 7 | 99/5 |
| 21 | 4 | 103/5 |
| 22 | 7 | 110/5 |
| 23 | 2 | 112/5 |
| 24 | 8 | 120/5 |
| 25 | 3 | 123/5 |
| 26 | 8 | 131/5 |
| 27 | 1 | 132/5 |
| 28 | 7 | 139/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 142/5 |
| 30 | 10 | 152/5 |
| 31 | 8 | 160/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 163/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 166/6 |
| 34 | 7 | 173/6 |
| 35 | 1 | 174/6 |
| 36 | 10 | 184/6 |
| 37 | 5 | 189/6 |
| 38 | 13 | 202/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 206/6 |
| 40 | 5 | 211/7 |
| 41 | 10 | 221/7 |
| 42 | 7 | 228/7 |
| 43 | 3 | 231/7 |
| 44 | 6 | 237/7 |
| 45 | 9 | 246/7 |
| 46 | 6 | 252/7 |
| 47 | 6 | 258/7 |
| 48 | 5 | 263/8 |
| 49 | 14 | 277/9 |
| 50 | 2 | 279/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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