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West Indies Women tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Women
21 Jun 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 51%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashada Williamscaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Udeshika Prabodhani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Udeshika Prabodhani | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 6.67 |
| Chedean Nationbowled · Chamari Atapattu 7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chamari Atapattu | 46 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 80.70 |
 Shemaine Campbellelbw · Kawya Kavindi0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kawya Kavindi | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Stafanie Taylorcaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Oshadi Ranasinghe1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Oshadi Ranasinghe | 16 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 32.00 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 50%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Sachini Nisansala |
| 5 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Aaliyah Alleynecaught and bowled · Sachini Nisansala 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sachini Nisansala | 27 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Chinelle Henrycaught · Chamari Atapattu · Sachini Nisansala0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chamari Atapattu · b Sachini Nisansala | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
 Afy Fletchercaught · Oshadi Ranasinghe · Sachini Nisansala0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Oshadi Ranasinghe · b Sachini Nisansala | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Qiana Josephcaught · Sugandika Kumari · Sachini Nisansala 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sugandika Kumari · b Sachini Nisansala | 11 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 91.67 |
|---|
 Karishma Ramharackcaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Oshadi Ranasinghe0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Oshadi Ranasinghe | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
|---|
 Shamilia Connellnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udeshika Prabodhani3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kawya Kavindi1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Oshadi Ranasinghe4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Sachini Nisansala1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.5 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Rashada Williams, 4.1) · 2-5 (Shemaine Campbelle, 5.3) · 3-62 (Stafanie Taylor, 19.1) · 4-69 (Chedean Nation, 22.3) · 5-76 (Zaida James, 24.5) · 6-82 (Chinelle Henry, 26.4) · 7-82 (Afy Fletcher, 27.0) · 8-96 (Qiana Joseph, 30.1) · 9-107 (Karishma Ramharack, 33.2) · 10-115 (Aaliyah Alleyne, 34.5)
Recorded target: 276 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 4/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 4/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 4/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 10/2 |
| 7 | 0 | 10/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 11/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 12/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 21/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 12 | 11 | 34/2 |
| 13 | 14 | 48/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 48/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 51/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 51/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 55/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 61/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 62/2 |
| 20 | 0 | 62/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 68/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 69/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 70/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 73/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 76/5 |
| 26 | 4 | 80/5 |
| 27 | 2 | 82/7 |
| 28 | 1 | 83/7 |
| 29 | 7 | 90/7 |
| 30 | 6 | 96/7 |
| 31 | 0 | 96/8 |
| 32 | 3 | 99/8 |
| 33 | 8 | 107/8 |
| 34 | 0 | 107/9 |
| 35 | 8 | 115/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamilia Connell: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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