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Australia tour of Pakistan · 2026 · Men
30 May 2026 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 48%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahibzada Farhancaught · Matthew Short · Tanveer Sangha 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Short · b Tanveer Sangha | 28 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 84.85 |
| Maaz Sadaqatcaught · Matthew Short · Matthew Kuhnemann 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Short · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
 Mohammad Babar Azambowled · Nathan Ellis4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Ellis | 69 | 94 | 4 | 1 | 73.40 |
| Ghazi Ghorilbw · Nathan Ellis 8 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Ellis | 65 | 92 | 8 | 0 | 70.65 |
| Arafat Minhasnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 18* |
Australia's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Pakistan: 37% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 17 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 105.88 |
| Salman Ali Aghalbw · Marnus Labuschagne 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Marnus Labuschagne | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Abdul Samadnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 6.43 | 2 | 0 |
 Billy Stanlake0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 6.17 | 4 | 0 |
| Matthew Kuhnemann1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 2.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanveer Sangha3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 3.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Short0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.3 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-25 (Maaz Sadaqat, 5.2) · 2-49 (Sahibzada Farhan, 12.2) · 3-176 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 38.2) · 4-185 (Ghazi Ghori, 40.3) · 5-195 (Salman Ali Agha, 42.1)
Recorded target: 201 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 32/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 34/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 41/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 44/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 49/1 |
| 13 | 0 | 49/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 52/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 56/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 59/2 |
| 17 | 10 | 69/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 76/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 80/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 83/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 86/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 88/2 |
| 23 | 11 | 99/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 100/2 |
| 25 | 0 | 100/2 |
| 26 | 9 | 109/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 112/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 118/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 124/2 |
| 30 | 6 | 130/2 |
| 31 | 5 | 135/2 |
| 32 | 0 | 135/2 |
| 33 | 4 | 139/2 |
| 34 | 1 | 140/2 |
| 35 | 16 | 156/2 |
| 36 | 4 | 160/2 |
| 37 | 8 | 168/2 |
| 38 | 7 | 175/2 |
| 39 | 2 | 177/3 |
| 40 | 3 | 180/3 |
| 41 | 11 | 191/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 195/4 |
| 43 | 7 | 202/5 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Billy Stanlake: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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