OmanversusPapua New Guinea

10 Oct 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Oman won by 52 runs

Oman20.0 overs138/7 Papua New Guinea16.4 overs86/10 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Oman more likely to win

56%Oman44%Papua New Guinea

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Oman won 3 and Papua New Guinea won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Oman (1,492 vs 1,452 on our results rating)
Oman are playing at home in Oman

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Oman started on 52%; Oman batted first.

Oman’s chance of winning (%) · Papua New Guinea is the rest

Oman's chances ranged from 18% to 100% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 0% to 82%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.2: Shakeel Ahmed to L Siaka, L Siaka out. Oman up from 53% to 67%.
2nd inns 8.5: J Ramanandi to Patrick Nou, Patrick Nou out. Oman up from 51% to 65%.
2nd inns 12.1: J Ramanandi to S Bau, S Bau out. Oman up from 49% to 63%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Oman138/7 Papua New Guinea86/10

Innings 2

Papua New Guinea

86/1016.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Papua New Guinea batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sese Baubowled · Jiten Ramanandi 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jiten Ramanandi	35	34	3	0	102.94
Gaudi Tokabowled · Shah Faisal 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shah Faisal	2	5	0	0	40.00
Lega Siakabowled · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shakeel Ahmed	2	6	0	0	33.33
Patrick Noucaught · AR Bisht · Jiten Ramanandi 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AR Bisht · b Jiten Ramanandi	19	20	2	0	95.00
Assad Valacaught · Jatinder Singh · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jatinder Singh · b Shakeel Ahmed	10

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shah Faisal0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	2
Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	3	3.75	0
AR Bisht0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	4
Nadeem Khan (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	8	2	4.00	0
Jiten Ramanandi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	22	3	6.00	0
Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	1	3.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	4	9/0
3	3	12/1
4	3	15/2
5	10	25/2
6	6	31/2
7	8	39/2
8	4	43/2
9	5	48/3
10	8	56/3
11	9	65/3
12	6	71/3
13	4	75/4
14	1	76/5
15	2	78/7
16	4	82/9
17	4	86/10

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